Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Northwestern ORE @ NU

OREGON

OREGONORE

2-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:00 PM ET
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

1-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Devon Jackson
KEY GAME

Devon Jackson

#9 | Linebacker
@
Josh Fussell
KEY GAME

Josh Fussell

#13 | Defensive Back
Player
Devon Jackson None-None
Josh Fussell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
0%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
100%
OREGON --
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Oregon)
OregonORE (-3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

99.6%

Northwestern Cover

0.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ORE -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

ORE By 1-6 points

1.0%

ORE By 7-13 points

3.2%

NU By 1-6 points

0.3%

NU By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
56
OREGON
19
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
41
OREGON
17
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
C
Sim Oregon (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 ORE @ NU 34 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.4% more
Oregon: 211.6 vs Northwestern: 145.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.8% more
Oregon: 494.3 vs Northwestern: 361.9
First Downs (L5) +14.8% more
Oregon: 23.7 vs Northwestern: 20.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Oregon: 0.6 vs Northwestern: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 56.0 34
NU Score 19.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 23.7 15.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 145.1 / 211.6 178.0 / 176.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.27 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 361.9 / 494.3 313.0 / 373.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 0.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
NU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
ORE
NU
ORE
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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