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CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

1-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:00 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

1-1  |  Home

63
Key Game
Zac Chapeau
KEY GAME

Zac Chapeau

#15 | Place kicker
@
Jacob Oden
KEY GAME

Jacob Oden

#5 | Safety
Player
Zac Chapeau None-None
Jacob Oden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
100%
📊
MICHIGAN
0%
C MICHIGAN --
MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Michigan)
C MichiganCMU (-3.5) 0 MichiganMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

17.7%

Michigan Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MICH -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

CMU By 1-6 points

8.6%

CMU By 7-13 points

5.3%

MICH By 1-6 points

13.5%

MICH By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
19
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
13
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
48
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 CMU @ MICH 3 - 63
Aug 31, 2013 CMU @ MICH 9 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.0% more
Michigan: 155.5 vs Central Michigan: 128.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Michigan: 307.9 vs Central Michigan: 264.7
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
Central Michigan: 1.2 vs Michigan: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 6.0 3
MICH Score 19.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 15.7 35.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 155.5 / 128.5 381.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.73 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 307.9 / 264.7 616.0 / 139.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
MICH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
CMU
MICH
CMU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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