Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / William & Mary @ Virginia W&M @ UVA

WILLIAM & MARY

WILLIAM & MARYW&M

1-1  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

1-1  |  Home

55
Key Game
Carter Boyd
KEY GAME

Carter Boyd

#94 | Punter
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Carter Boyd None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WILLIAM & MARY
100%
📊
VIRGINIA
0%
WILLIAM & MARY --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Virginia)
William & MaryW&M (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

William & Mary Cover

38.8%

Virginia Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

W&M By 1-6 points

14.7%

W&M By 7-13 points

12.1%

UVA By 1-6 points

17.0%

UVA By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13
WILLIAM & MARY
17
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
13
WILLIAM & MARY
41
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 30.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 W&M @ UVA 16 - 55
Oct 7, 2023 W&M @ UVA 13 - 27
Sep 4, 2021 W&M @ UVA 0 - 43
Sep 6, 2019 W&M @ UVA 17 - 52
Sep 2, 2017 W&M @ UVA 10 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.0% more
Virginia: 1.2 vs William & Mary: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +30.3% more
Virginia: 396.2 vs William & Mary: 304.0
First Downs (L5) +22.9% more
Virginia: 20.9 vs William & Mary: 17.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs William & Mary: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
W&M Score 13.0 16
UVA Score 17.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 17.0 30.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 166.8 / 152.9 379.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 396.2 / 304.0 700.0 / 263.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
--
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
--
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
--
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
W&M
UVA
W&M
ML
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-5
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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