Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Youngstown St @ Michigan St YSU @ MSU

YOUNGSTOWN STATE

YOUNGSTOWN STYSU

2-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

2-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Andrew Lastovka
KEY GAME

Andrew Lastovka

#24 | Place kicker
@
Ben Roberts
KEY GAME

Ben Roberts

#55 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Andrew Lastovka None-None
Ben Roberts None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
YOUNGSTOWN ST
100%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
0%
YOUNGSTOWN ST --
MICHIGAN ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Michigan State)
Youngstown StYSU (-3.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Youngstown St Cover

1.3%

Michigan St Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

YSU By 1-6 points

0.9%

YSU By 7-13 points

0.3%

MSU By 1-6 points

2.5%

MSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
38
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
10
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
45
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Michigan St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 YSU @ MSU 24 - 41
Sep 11, 2021 YSU @ MSU 14 - 42
Sep 14, 2013 YSU @ MSU 17 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.0% more
Michigan State: 134.9 vs Youngstown State: 96.3
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
Michigan State: 19.1 vs Youngstown State: 15.4
Total Yards (L5) +17.7% more
Michigan State: 330.0 vs Youngstown State: 280.3
Turnovers (L5) +31.3% more
Youngstown State: 1.7 vs Michigan State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
YSU Score 7.0 24
MSU Score 38.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 15.4 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 134.9 / 96.3 174.0 / 97.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.6 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 330.0 / 280.3 444.0 / 339.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
--
MSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
--
MSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
--
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
YSU
MSU
YSU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
ATS
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-1
25% 1-3-1
0% 0-1
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
20% 1-4
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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