Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Morgan St @ Toledo MORG @ TOL

MORGAN STATE

MORGAN STMORG

0-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

1-1  |  Home

60
Key Game
Shane Messenger
KEY GAME

Shane Messenger

#85 | Punter
@
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
Player
Shane Messenger None-None
Emilio Duran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MORGAN ST
100%
📊
TOLEDO
0%
MORGAN ST --
TOLEDO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-67.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +67.0 points (Toledo)
Morgan StMORG (-3.5) 0 ToledoTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Morgan St Cover

0.0%

Toledo Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TOL -67.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

MORG By 1-6 points

0.0%

MORG By 7-13 points

0.0%

TOL By 1-6 points

0.0%

TOL By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MORGAN STATE
73
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
7
MORGAN STATE
45
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toledo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Toledo Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -67.0
C
Sim Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 79.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 MORG @ TOL 0 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +60.6% more
Toledo: 411.4 vs Morgan State: 256.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.9% more
Toledo: 165.3 vs Morgan State: 114.1
First Downs (L5) +28.5% more
Toledo: 19.5 vs Morgan State: 15.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Toledo: 0.4 vs Morgan State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 6.0 0
TOL Score 73.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 15.1 31.0 / 4.0
Rushing Yards 165.3 / 114.1 260.0 / 36.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.5 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 411.4 / 256.2 557.0 / 56.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
--
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG
--
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
--
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
MORG
TOL
MORG
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
0% 0-2
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-2
TTL
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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