Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N'Western St @ Cincinnati NWST @ CIN

NORTHWESTERN STATE

N'WESTERN STNWST

1-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

1-1  |  Home

70
Key Game
Cooper Evans
KEY GAME

Cooper Evans

#17 | Place kicker
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Cooper Evans None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N'WESTERN ST
100%
📊
CINCINNATI
0%
N'WESTERN ST --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
76.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-64.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +64.0 points (Cincinnati)
N'Western StNWST (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N'Western St Cover

0.0%

Cincinnati Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -64.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NWST By 1-6 points

0.0%

NWST By 7-13 points

0.0%

CIN By 1-6 points

0.0%

CIN By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6
NORTHWESTERN STATE
70
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
10
NORTHWESTERN STATE
45
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -64.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 76.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 NWST @ CIN 0 - 70
Sep 14, 2013 NWST @ CIN 9 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +129.0% more
Cincinnati: 169.1 vs Northwestern State: 73.9
First Downs (L5) +121.4% more
Cincinnati: 19.0 vs Northwestern State: 8.6
Total Yards (L5) +105.5% more
Cincinnati: 375.6 vs Northwestern State: 182.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.3 vs Northwestern State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NWST Score 6.0 0
CIN Score 70.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 8.6 26.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 169.1 / 73.9 243.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.5 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 375.6 / 182.7 605.0 / 102.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
--
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
--
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
--
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NWST
CIN
NWST
ML
75% 3-1
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
80% 4-1
0% 0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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