Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Villanova @ Penn State VILL @ PSU

VILLANOVA

VILLANOVAVILL

1-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

2-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Ratu Delano Navoti
KEY GAME

Ratu Delano Navoti

#99 | Defensive Lineman
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Ratu Delano Navoti None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VILLANOVA
13%
📊
PENN STATE
87%
VILLANOVA --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 57%
Under 0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Penn State)
VillanovaVILL (-3.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Villanova Cover

2.3%

Penn State Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

VILL By 1-6 points

1.4%

VILL By 7-13 points

0.5%

PSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

PSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7
VILLANOVA
35
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
10
VILLANOVA
45
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Win
87% Win Prob
D
Sim Penn State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penn State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Penn State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 VILL @ PSU 6 - 52
Sep 25, 2021 VILL @ PSU 17 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +98.9% more
Penn State: 193.4 vs Villanova: 97.2
Total Yards (L5) +54.3% more
Penn State: 403.5 vs Villanova: 261.5
First Downs (L5) +28.1% more
Penn State: 21.6 vs Villanova: 16.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Penn State: 0.4 vs Villanova: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VILL Score 7.0 6
PSU Score 35.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 16.9 28.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 193.4 / 97.2 237.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 403.5 / 261.5 465.0 / 179.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VILL
--
PSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VILL
--
PSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
VILL
--
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
VILL
PSU
VILL
ML
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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