Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTEP @ Texas UTEP @ TEX

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 4:15 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

1-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
@
Kade Phillips
KEY GAME

Kade Phillips

#8 | Defensive Back
Player
Carlos Arreola None-None
Kade Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
100%
📊
TEXAS
0%
UTEP --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Texas)
UTEPUTEP (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

2.3%

Texas Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEX -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

UTEP By 1-6 points

1.4%

UTEP By 7-13 points

0.5%

TEX By 1-6 points

3.8%

TEX By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
13
UTEP
41
TEXAS
Simulated Score
10
UTEP
48
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 UTEP @ TEX 10 - 27
Sep 12, 2020 UTEP @ TEX 3 - 59
Sep 10, 2016 UTEP @ TEX 7 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.5% more
Texas: 1.6 vs UTEP: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +17.4% more
Texas: 19.0 vs UTEP: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Texas: 407.2 vs UTEP: 357.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 13.0 10
TEX Score 41.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 16.1 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 140.8 / 141.7 226.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 407.2 / 357.8 340.0 / 259.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
TEX Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
UTEP
TEX
UTEP
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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