Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ Nevada MTSU @ NEV

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

0-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 5:00 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-1  |  Home

13
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Joe McFadden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
0%
📊
NEVADA
100%
MTSU --
NEVADA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
MTSUMTSU (-3.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

55.7%

Nevada Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MTSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MTSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

MTSU By 7-13 points

16.8%

NEV By 1-6 points

15.7%

NEV By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
19
NEVADA
Simulated Score
24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
27
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI MTSU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Nevada Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI MTSU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim Nevada (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 NEV @ MTSU 20 - 27
Sep 13, 2025 MTSU @ NEV 14 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +112.6% more
Nevada: 153.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 72.0
Turnovers (L5) +108.0% more
Nevada: 2.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Nevada: 343.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 281.6
First Downs (L5) +21.3% more
Nevada: 19.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 16.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 21.0 14
NEV Score 19.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 16.0 16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 153.0 / 72.0 203.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.23 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 343.4 / 281.6 369.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
MTSU
NEV
MTSU
ML
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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