Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Kentucky @ Marshall EKU @ MRSH

EASTERN KENTUCKY

E KENTUCKYEKU

1-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 6:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

0-2  |  Home

38
Key Game
Buzz Flabiano
KEY GAME

Buzz Flabiano

#36 | Punter
@
Philipp Davis
KEY GAME

Philipp Davis

#4 | Defensive Back
Player
Buzz Flabiano None-None
Philipp Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E KENTUCKY
100%
📊
MARSHALL
0%
E KENTUCKY --
MARSHALL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (Marshall)
E KentuckyEKU (-3.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Kentucky Cover

0.0%

Marshall Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRSH -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

EKU By 1-6 points

0.0%

EKU By 7-13 points

0.0%

MRSH By 1-6 points

0.1%

MRSH By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0
EASTERN KENTUCKY
49
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
17
EASTERN KENTUCKY
38
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marshall Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marshall (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
C
Sim Marshall (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 EKU @ MRSH 7 - 38
Sep 5, 2020 EKU @ MRSH 0 - 59
Sep 8, 2018 EKU @ MRSH 16 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.4% more
Marshall: 166.4 vs Eastern Kentucky: 117.7
Total Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Marshall: 303.6 vs Eastern Kentucky: 253.4
Turnovers (L5) +47.1% more
Eastern Kentucky: 1.0 vs Marshall: 0.5
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Eastern Kentucky: 0.5 vs Marshall: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EKU Score 0.0 7
MRSH Score 49.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.8 / 14.0 21.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 166.4 / 117.7 263.0 / 11.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 303.6 / 253.4 377.0 / 102.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
--
MRSH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
--
MRSH Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
--
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
EKU
MRSH
EKU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
100% 5-0
100% 1-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
20% 1-4
100% 1-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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