Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Monmouth @ Charlotte MONM @ CLT

MONMOUTH

MONMOUTHMONM

2-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 6:00 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Luke Schabel
KEY GAME

Luke Schabel

#9 | Punter
@
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
Player
Luke Schabel None-None
Bronson Long None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MONMOUTH
100%
📊
CHARLOTTE
0%
MONMOUTH --
CHARLOTTE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Charlotte)
MonmouthMONM (-3.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Monmouth Cover

30.9%

Charlotte Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLT)

MONM By 1-6 points

12.9%

MONM By 7-13 points

9.6%

CLT By 1-6 points

16.5%

CLT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
42
MONMOUTH
49
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
17
MONMOUTH
38
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Charlotte Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Charlotte Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Charlotte (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Charlotte (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 MONM @ CLT 35 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.7% more
Charlotte: 1.7 vs Monmouth: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.9% more
Monmouth: 131.4 vs Charlotte: 73.7
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Monmouth: 382.7 vs Charlotte: 296.5
First Downs (L5) +12.3% more
Monmouth: 20.5 vs Charlotte: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONM Score 42.0 35
CLT Score 49.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 20.5 29.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 73.7 / 131.4 181.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 296.5 / 382.7 563.0 / 458.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONM
--
CLT
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONM
--
CLT Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MONM
--
CLT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
MONM
CLT
MONM
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
0% 0-2
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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