Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Merrimack @ Kennesaw St MRMK @ KENN

MERRIMACK

MERRIMACKMRMK

1-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 6:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

0-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Mike Ryan

#83 | Place kicker
@
Kody Jones
KEY GAME

Kody Jones

#12 | Defensive Back
Player
Mike Ryan None-None
Kody Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MERRIMACK
57%
📊
KENNESAW ST
43%
MERRIMACK --
KENNESAW ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 43%
Under 0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Kennesaw State)
MerrimackMRMK (-3.5) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Merrimack Cover

17.7%

Kennesaw St Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

MRMK By 1-6 points

8.6%

MRMK By 7-13 points

5.3%

KENN By 1-6 points

13.5%

KENN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MERRIMACK
19
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
20
MERRIMACK
31
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kennesaw St Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Kennesaw St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kennesaw St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Kennesaw St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 MRMK @ KENN 13 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.0% more
Kennesaw State: 1.1 vs Merrimack: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Merrimack: 127.3 vs Kennesaw State: 115.3
First Downs (L5) +8.7% more
Merrimack: 14.6 vs Kennesaw State: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 6.0 13
KENN Score 19.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.3 / 14.6 21.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 115.3 / 127.3 173.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.42 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 268.4 / 274.4 369.0 / 294.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
--
KENN Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
--
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
--
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
MRMK
KENN
MRMK
ML
25% 1-3
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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