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JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

1-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

0-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Gabe Glover
KEY GAME

Gabe Glover

#81 | Wide Receiver
@
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Gabe Glover None-None
Tripp Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
100%
📊
GA SOUTHERN
0%
JAX STATE --
GA SOUTHERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Georgia Southern)
Jax StateJXST (-3.5) 0 GA SouthernGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

26.0%

GA Southern Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GASO -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

JXST By 1-6 points

11.5%

JXST By 7-13 points

8.0%

GASO By 1-6 points

15.7%

GASO By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
JACKSONVILLE STATE
30
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
27
JACKSONVILLE STATE
31
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI GA Southern Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim GA Southern Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI GA Southern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim GA Southern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 GASO @ JXST 27 - 31
Sep 13, 2025 JXST @ GASO 34 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +102.0% more
Georgia Southern: 1.7 vs Jacksonville State: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +11.1% more
Georgia Southern: 21.3 vs Jacksonville State: 19.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.2% more
Jacksonville State: 245.0 vs Georgia Southern: 131.9
Total Yards (L5) +13.0% more
Jacksonville State: 393.6 vs Georgia Southern: 342.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 21.0 34
GASO Score 30.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 19.1 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 131.9 / 245.0 219.0 / 213.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 342.3 / 393.6 410.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
GASO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
GASO Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
JXST
GASO
JXST
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
TTL
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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