Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ Southern Miss APP @ USM

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

2-0  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

1-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Aiden Benton
KEY GAME

Aiden Benton

#33 | Defensive Lineman
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Aiden Benton None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
0%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
APP STATE --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (App State)
App StateAPP (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

98.1%

Southern Miss Cover

1.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around APP -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-6 points

3.3%

APP By 7-13 points

8.0%

USM By 1-6 points

1.2%

USM By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
52
APP STATE
23
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
31
APP STATE
24
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI App State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim App State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI App State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Sim App State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 APP @ USM 22 - 38
Oct 28, 2023 USM @ APP 38 - 48
Sep 20, 2014 APP @ USM 20 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.5% more
App State: 2.3 vs Southern Miss: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.6% more
App State: 182.3 vs Southern Miss: 115.6
Total Yards (L5) +35.9% more
App State: 483.6 vs Southern Miss: 310.0
First Downs (L5) +18.1% more
App State: 23.8 vs Southern Miss: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 52.0 22
USM Score 23.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 23.8 18.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 115.6 / 182.3 110.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 310.0 / 483.6 389.0 / 470.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.3 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
APP
USM
APP
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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