FLORIDA
FLORIDAFLA
1-1 | Road
10
LSU
LSULSU
2-0 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jeramiah McCloud
#91 | Defensive Lineman@
KEY GAME
Grant Chadwick
#90 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jeramiah McCloud | None-None |
| Grant Chadwick | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
100%
LSU
0%
FLORIDA
--
LSU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (LSU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)
FLA By 1-6 points
8.6%
FLA By 7-13 points
5.3%
LSU By 1-6 points
13.5%
LSU By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
24
FLORIDA
LSU
37
LSU
Simulated Score
Florida
27
FLORIDA
LSU
31
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
LSU
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
LSU
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
LSU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim
LSU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2025
FLA @ LSU
10 - 20
Nov 16, 2024
LSU @ FLA
16 - 27
Nov 11, 2023
FLA @ LSU
35 - 52
Oct 15, 2022
LSU @ FLA
45 - 35
Oct 16, 2021
FLA @ LSU
42 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.0% more
LSU: 1.4
vs
Florida: 1.0
First Downs (L5)
+12.0% more
LSU: 24.2
vs
Florida: 21.6
Rushing Yards (L5)
+32.6% more
Florida: 175.3
vs
LSU: 118.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
24.0
10
LSU Score
37.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.2 / 21.6
10.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
118.2 / 175.3
96.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.29 / 0.35
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.6
0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards
387.4 / 401.2
316.0 / 366.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
LSU
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
LSU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +14.1
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
FLA
LSU
FLA
ML
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
ATS
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
TTL
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
0%
0-5
60%
3-2
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