Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Kentucky EMU @ UK

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

0-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

1-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
@
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Rudy Kessinger None-None
Jacob Kauwe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
100%
📊
KENTUCKY
0%
E MICHIGAN --
KENTUCKY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Kentucky)
E MichiganEMU (-3.5) 0 KentuckyUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

14.2%

Kentucky Cover

85.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UK -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

EMU By 1-6 points

7.2%

EMU By 7-13 points

4.1%

UK By 1-6 points

12.2%

UK By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
12
EASTERN MICHIGAN
27
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
13
EASTERN MICHIGAN
42
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kentucky Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kentucky Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kentucky (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Sim Kentucky (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 EMU @ UK 23 - 48
Sep 7, 2019 EMU @ UK 17 - 38
Sep 30, 2017 EMU @ UK 20 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.4% more
Kentucky: 1.8 vs Eastern Michigan: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.2% more
Kentucky: 167.0 vs Eastern Michigan: 136.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Eastern Michigan: 0.4 vs Kentucky: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 12.0 23
UK Score 27.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 19.1 25.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 167.0 / 136.7 252.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 338.8 / 351.5 492.0 / 461.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
EMU
UK
EMU
ML
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
0% 0-5
33% 2-4
TTL
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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