Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ Tulsa NAVY @ TLSA

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

2-0  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

1-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
@
Tyler Rich
KEY GAME

Tyler Rich

#58 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Jacob Carlson None-None
Tyler Rich None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
75%
📊
TULSA
25%
NAVY --
TULSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Navy)
NavyNAVY (-3.5) 0 TulsaTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

99.7%

Tulsa Cover

0.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NAVY -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

NAVY By 1-6 points

0.9%

NAVY By 7-13 points

2.8%

TLSA By 1-6 points

0.2%

TLSA By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
45
NAVY
7
TULSA
Simulated Score
24
NAVY
27
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Navy Win
75% Win Prob
D
Sim Tulsa Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Navy (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Tulsa (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 NAVY @ TLSA 42 - 23
Oct 8, 2022 TLSA @ NAVY 21 - 53
Oct 29, 2021 NAVY @ TLSA 20 - 17
Dec 5, 2020 TLSA @ NAVY 19 - 6
Oct 12, 2019 NAVY @ TLSA 45 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.2% more
Navy: 307.1 vs Tulsa: 162.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Navy: 0.5 vs Tulsa: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +198.0% more
Tulsa: 2.3 vs Navy: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
Tulsa: 22.3 vs Navy: 18.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 45.0 42
TLSA Score 7.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 18.8 23.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 162.1 / 307.1 140.0 / 367.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 411.1 / 428.2 329.0 / 461.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.3 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
NAVY
TLSA
NAVY
ML
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
UAB Rallies Past Navy 24-20 Behind McReynolds' Late 48-Yard Touc…
abcnews 1 week, 5 days ago
Arkansas Razorbacks Seek Identity Fix Before SEC Gauntlet, Host …
si 2 weeks, 4 days ago
Week 1 American Conference Report: Tulsa's Defensive Grit, Charl…
yahoo 1 month ago
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa: How to Watch Eric Morris' Cowboys Debu…
yahoo 1 month ago