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ABILENE CHRISTIAN

ABILENE CHRSTNACU

1-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Hugo Nash
KEY GAME

Hugo Nash

#33 | Punter
@
Nate McCashland
KEY GAME

Nate McCashland

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Hugo Nash None-None
Nate McCashland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ABILENE CHRSTN
100%
📊
TCU
0%
ABILENE CHRSTN --
TCU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (TCU)
Abilene ChrstnACU (-3.5) 0 TCUTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Abilene Chrstn Cover

0.0%

TCU Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

ACU By 1-6 points

0.0%

ACU By 7-13 points

0.0%

TCU By 1-6 points

0.1%

TCU By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
21
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
70
TCU
Simulated Score
10
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
52
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI TCU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim TCU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI TCU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
C
Sim TCU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 ACU @ TCU 21 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.6% more
TCU: 169.2 vs Abilene Christian: 114.6
First Downs (L5) +31.6% more
TCU: 23.5 vs Abilene Christian: 17.8
Total Yards (L5) +22.3% more
TCU: 444.3 vs Abilene Christian: 363.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 21.0 21
TCU Score 70.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 17.8 24.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 169.2 / 114.6 128.0 / 177.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.82 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 444.3 / 363.4 489.0 / 453.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
--
TCU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
--
TCU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
--
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
ACU
TCU
ACU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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