Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ UAB AKR @ UAB

AKRON

AKRONAKR

0-2  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 8:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

1-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Jonah Delange None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
0%
📊
UAB
100%
AKRON --
UAB --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Akron)
AkronAKR (-3.5) 0 UABUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

78.4%

UAB Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AKR -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

AKR By 1-6 points

14.7%

AKR By 7-13 points

19.7%

UAB By 1-6 points

10.0%

UAB By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
AKRON
20
UAB
Simulated Score
17
AKRON
34
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Akron Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UAB Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Akron (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim UAB (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 AKR @ UAB 28 - 31
Sep 7, 2019 UAB @ AKR 31 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +72.4% more
UAB: 1.8 vs Akron: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +56.3% more
UAB: 433.4 vs Akron: 277.3
First Downs (L5) +40.1% more
UAB: 23.1 vs Akron: 16.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.7% more
UAB: 148.1 vs Akron: 117.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 31.0 28
UAB Score 20.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 16.5 26.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 148.1 / 117.8 80.0 / 159.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 433.4 / 277.3 421.0 / 441.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
UAB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
UAB Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
AKR
UAB
AKR
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1-1
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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