Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas St @ Arizona St TXST @ ASU

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

2-0  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 10:30 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

1-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Sully Burns
KEY GAME

Sully Burns

#68 | Offensive Lineman
@
Jaren Hamilton
KEY GAME

Jaren Hamilton

#16 | Wide Receiver
Player
Sully Burns None-None
Jaren Hamilton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
100%
📊
ARIZONA ST
0%
TEXAS ST --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Arizona State)
Texas StTXST (-3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

33.4%

Arizona St Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ASU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

TXST By 1-6 points

13.5%

TXST By 7-13 points

10.4%

ASU By 1-6 points

16.7%

ASU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
18
TEXAS STATE
24
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
17
TEXAS STATE
34
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim Arizona St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 TXST @ ASU 15 - 34
Sep 12, 2024 ASU @ TXST 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Texas State: 0.5 vs Arizona State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Texas State: 511.2 vs Arizona State: 427.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.2% more
Texas State: 243.3 vs Arizona State: 223.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.1% more
Texas State: 1.2 vs Arizona State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 18.0 15
ASU Score 24.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 24.2 21.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 223.3 / 243.3 245.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 427.7 / 511.2 433.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
TXST
ASU
TXST
ML
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-4
20% 1-4
TTL
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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