Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Portland St @ Hawai'i PRST @ HAW

PORTLAND STATE

PORTLAND STPRST

0-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

2-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Mathias Uribe
KEY GAME

Mathias Uribe

#97 | Place kicker
@
Kainoa Ontai
KEY GAME

Kainoa Ontai

#29 | Defensive Back
Player
Mathias Uribe None-None
Kainoa Ontai None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PORTLAND ST
100%
📊
HAWAI'I
0%
PORTLAND ST --
HAWAI'I --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Hawai'i)
Portland StPRST (-3.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Portland St Cover

0.3%

Hawai'i Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

PRST By 1-6 points

0.2%

PRST By 7-13 points

0.1%

HAW By 1-6 points

0.9%

HAW By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17
PORTLAND STATE
55
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
13
PORTLAND STATE
41
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Hawai'i Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim Hawai'i (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 PRST @ HAW 3 - 23
Sep 4, 2021 PRST @ HAW 35 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +148.0% more
Hawai'i: 2.4 vs Portland State: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +87.8% more
Hawai'i: 22.1 vs Portland State: 11.7
Total Yards (L5) +61.9% more
Hawai'i: 374.2 vs Portland State: 231.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PRST Score 17.0 3
HAW Score 55.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 11.7 18.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 98.2 / 94.6 107.0 / 41.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 374.2 / 231.1 357.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST
--
HAW Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST
--
HAW Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
--
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
PRST
HAW
PRST
ML
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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