Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado @ Houston COLO @ HOU

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

1-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 7:30 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

2-0  |  Home

36
Key Game
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Damon Greaves None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO
0%
📊
HOUSTON
100%
COLORADO --
HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
86.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Colorado)
ColoradoCOLO (-3.5) 0 HoustonHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado Cover

96.8%

Houston Cover

3.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around COLO -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

COLO By 1-6 points

4.8%

COLO By 7-13 points

10.4%

HOU By 1-6 points

1.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
COLORADO
30
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
COLORADO
31
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Colorado Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Houston Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Colorado (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
B
Sim Houston (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 86.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2025 COLO @ HOU 20 - 36
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +18.2% more
Colorado: 18.8 vs Houston: 15.4
Turnovers (L5) +80.0% more
Houston: 1.4 vs Colorado: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +76.2% more
Houston: 162.7 vs Colorado: 92.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 56.0 20
HOU Score 30.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.4 / 18.8 21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 162.7 / 92.4 209.0 / 96.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 326.1 / 350.0 431.0 / 300.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
HOU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.7
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
COLO
HOU
COLO
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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