Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ UCLA UNM @ UCLA

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

1-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 10:00 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

0-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Jalen McIver
KEY GAME

Jalen McIver

#94 | Defensive Tackle
@
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Jalen McIver None-None
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
100%
📊
UCLA
0%
NEW MEXICO --
UCLA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
81.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (UCLA)
New MexicoUNM (-3.5) 0 UCLAUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

41.5%

UCLA Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCLA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

UNM By 1-6 points

15.3%

UNM By 7-13 points

12.9%

UCLA By 1-6 points

17.0%

UCLA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NEW MEXICO
42
UCLA
Simulated Score
10
NEW MEXICO
45
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UCLA Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UCLA Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UCLA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim UCLA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 81.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2025 UNM @ UCLA 35 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.8% more
New Mexico: 220.4 vs UCLA: 119.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
New Mexico: 1.5 vs UCLA: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +13.1% more
New Mexico: 406.1 vs UCLA: 352.7
First Downs (L5) +10.3% more
New Mexico: 23.0 vs UCLA: 20.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 39.0 35
UCLA Score 42.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 23.0 15.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 119.5 / 220.4 109.0 / 298.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 352.7 / 406.1 326.0 / 450.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
UCLA
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
UNM
UCLA
UNM
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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