Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / NC State @ Wake Forest NCSU @ WAKE

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

2-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Thu, Sep 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

2-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Teddy Hoffmann
KEY GAME

Teddy Hoffmann

#12 | Wide Receiver
@
Connor Calvert
KEY GAME

Connor Calvert

#90 | Place kicker
Player
Teddy Hoffmann None-None
Connor Calvert None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
0%
📊
WAKE FOREST
100%
NC STATE --
WAKE FOREST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (NC State)
NC StateNCSU (-3.5) 0 Wake ForestWAKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

76.2%

Wake Forest Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NCSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

NCSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

NCSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

WAKE By 1-6 points

10.7%

WAKE By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
41
NC STATE
31
WAKE FOREST
Simulated Score
20
NC STATE
27
WAKE FOREST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI NC State Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Wake Forest Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI NC State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Wake Forest (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2025 NCSU @ WAKE 34 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 WAKE @ NCSU 34 - 30
Nov 11, 2023 NCSU @ WAKE 26 - 6
Nov 5, 2022 WAKE @ NCSU 21 - 30
Nov 13, 2021 NCSU @ WAKE 42 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +96.0% more
Wake Forest: 1.9 vs NC State: 0.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Wake Forest: 0.4 vs NC State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 41.0 34
WAKE Score 31.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 21.5 12.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 170.4 / 179.7 59.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 397.3 / 416.6 311.0 / 406.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
WAKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
WAKE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
NCSU
WAKE
NCSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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