WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
58-84 | Road
15
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
66-77 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 5.48 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Janson Junk | None-None | 4.48 | -- | 4.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.48
ERA
Ldr 4.48
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
45%
MARLINS
55%
NATIONALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Miami
2.66
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+31.0% more
Washington: 1.4
vs
Miami: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+29.0% more
Washington: 4.9
vs
Miami: 3.5
Home Runs (Season)
+20.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
15
MIA Score
2.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.3
10.0 / 19.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.4
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.3
6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 14.2
19.0 / 36.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.9
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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