CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
81-62 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
64-79 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Civale
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | None-None | 5.07 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.62 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.07
ERA
Ldr 3.62
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
62%
BRAVES
38%
CUBS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.1%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.51
CHICAGO
Atlanta
4.02
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
ATL @ CHC
4 - 8
Sep 15, 2026
ATL @ CHC
6 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
ATL @ CHC
3 - 7
May 14, 2026
CHC @ ATL
2 - 0
May 13, 2026
CHC @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.374
OPS
▲
.757
0
Home Runs
▲
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+450.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+115.9% more
Atlanta: 3.8
vs
Chicago: 1.8
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
Atlanta: 0.5
vs
Chicago: 0.0
OPS (Season)
+38.3%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.5
1
ATL Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 6.9
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.6
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 12.8
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.8 / 1.8
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHC
ATL
CHC
ML
46%
77-90
58%
93-68
54%
90-78
51%
82-79
ATS
57%
96-71
61%
97-63-1
52%
87-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
83-73-11
52%
81-74-6
49%
76-80-11
46%
72-83-6
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