CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
72-71 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
78-65 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.32 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 3.39 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.32 Ldr
ERA
3.39
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
46%
PADRES
54%
REDS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.2%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.03
CINCINNATI
San Diego
4.64
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.699
OPS
▲
.925
213
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+97.0% more
San Diego: 1.9
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+65.3% more
San Diego: 19.5
vs
Cincinnati: 11.8
Hits (L5)
+59.6% more
San Diego: 11.5
vs
Cincinnati: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.0
3
SD Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.5 / 7.2
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 10.7
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
19.5 / 11.8
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.5
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CIN
SD
CIN
ML
51%
85-83
55%
88-71
51%
85-82
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
80-80
TTL
51%
82-80-6
53%
81-73-5
54%
86-74-6
54%
83-72-5
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