Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Mariners STL @ SEA

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

72-72  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Sep 8 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

75-68  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gordon Graceffo None-None 5.77 -- 1.0 --
Andres Munoz None-None 1.66 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
5.77 ERA Ldr 1.66
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
48%
📊
MARINERS
52%
CARDINALS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.0%

Mariners Cover

60.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.52
ST. LOUIS
5.53
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Apr 25, 2026 SEA @ STL 11 - 9
Apr 24, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Sep 10, 2025 STL @ SEA 2 - 4
Sep 9, 2025 STL @ SEA 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .379
.691
OPS
▲ .693
167
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +277.0% more
Seattle: 3.2 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +145.9% more
Seattle: 23.1 vs St. Louis: 9.4
Hits (L5) +66.5% more
Seattle: 11.6 vs St. Louis: 7.0
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
Seattle: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.5 2
SEA Score 5.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.6 / 7.0 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 3.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.3 14.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 23.1 / 9.4 9.0 / 6.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
STL
SEA
STL
ML
50% 81-81
53% 85-74
52% 85-77
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 98-64
56% 89-70
59% 95-67
53% 85-76
TTL
56% 85-67-10
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-71-10
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 38 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 55 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 56 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 6 hours, 34 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 6 hours, 43 minutes ago