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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

72-72  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Sep 8 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

72-71  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Brandyn Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Brandyn Garcia

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandyn Garcia None-None 7.71 -- 1.0 1
Logan Webb None-None 3.12 -- 6.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
7.71 ERA Ldr 3.12
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
📊
GIANTS
50%
DIAMONDBACKS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

53.8%

Giants Cover

46.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.0%

ARI By 3-4 runs

14.7%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.92
ARIZONA
5.54
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +64.5% more
Arizona: 1.1 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +9.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.4%
Arizona: 72.0% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.2%
Arizona: 31.8% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 5.9 5
SF Score 5.5 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 7.6 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.8 5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 7.4 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 11.0 29.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
54% 86-74
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
56% 89-71
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-11
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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