CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
71-70 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
71-71 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.25 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 4.81 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.25 Ldr
ERA
4.81
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
RAYS
50%
GUARDIANS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.1%
TB By 1-2 runs
16.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.91
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
3.98
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.728
162
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+16.8% more
Cleveland: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+70.1% more
Tampa Bay: 11.6
vs
Cleveland: 6.8
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Cleveland: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.9
2
TB Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.1
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 6.8
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.6
13.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.8
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
58%
95-68
54%
87-75
58%
95-68
49%
80-83
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
93-69
55%
90-73
58%
95-68
TTL
47%
73-81-9
56%
89-71-2
51%
78-75-10
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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