Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Reds NYM @ CIN

NEW YORK

METSNYM

76-66  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

71-71  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
@
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
Hunter Greene None-None 2.59 -- 7.0 12
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.59
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 12
AI Model Win Probability
METS
54%
📊
REDS
46%
METS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cincinnati)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

41.8%

Reds Cover

58.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

11.1%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
5.23
NEW YORK
6.06
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.3
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 NYM @ CIN 9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 NYM @ CIN 3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 NYM @ CIN 0 - 12
May 27, 2026 CIN @ NYM 2 - 4
May 26, 2026 CIN @ NYM 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.705 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +13.8% more
Cincinnati: 10.0 vs New York: 8.8
Home Runs (L5) +8.5% more
Cincinnati: 1.4 vs New York: 1.3
Home Runs (Season) +4.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs New York: 204.0
Hits (L5) +10.9% more
New York: 9.9 vs Cincinnati: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.2 2
CIN Score 6.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 9.9 4.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 8.8 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 16.6 5.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.3 / 4.6 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYM
CIN
NYM
ML
55% 88-71
50% 79-80
49% 79-81
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-66
50% 80-80
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
55% 80-66-13
54% 83-72-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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