PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
83-59 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
65-77 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Mayza
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Mayza | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25 Ldr
ERA
2.53
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
62%
MARLINS
38%
PHILLIES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.1%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.09
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
3.74
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
OPS
▲
.727
3
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.7% more
Philadelphia: 1.6
vs
Miami: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+37.9% more
Philadelphia: 17.6
vs
Miami: 10.9
Hits (L5)
+29.5% more
Philadelphia: 10.2
vs
Miami: 7.2
Walks (L5)
+10.5% more
Philadelphia: 3.0
vs
Miami: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.1
4
MIA Score
3.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 10.2
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 8.5
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 17.6
16.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.0
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
78-84
59%
97-67
55%
88-72
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
91-71
65%
107-57
54%
86-74
51%
83-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
57%
88-67-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-76-9
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