Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Cardinals SF @ STL

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

72-70  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

71-72  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Drew Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Gilbert

#0 | Center Field
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Gilbert None-None -- -- -- --
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.60 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.60
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
51%
📊
CARDINALS
49%
GIANTS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

58.1%

Cardinals Cover

41.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

16.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.66
SAN FRANCISCO
4.84
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 SF @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 SF @ STL 10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 SF @ STL 1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026 STL @ SF 6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 STL @ SF 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.706 ▲
OPS
.691
178 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.7% more
San Francisco: 1.7 vs St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +49.5% more
San Francisco: 19.0 vs St. Louis: 9.6
Hits (L5) +44.9% more
San Francisco: 11.7 vs St. Louis: 6.4
Strikeouts (L5) +17.4% more
San Francisco: 8.4 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.7 3
STL Score 4.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 11.7 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.4 11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 19.0 9.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.3 / 1.7 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SF
STL
SF
ML
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
53% 85-75
ATS
56% 89-70
62% 100-60
53% 85-76
52% 83-77
TTL
46% 68-81-10
55% 82-68-10
50% 76-75-10
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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