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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

57-84  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

81-61  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clayton Beeter None-None 4.82 -- 1.1 3
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.12 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.82 ERA Ldr 2.12
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
34%
📊
CUBS
66%
NATIONALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Chicago)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

28.4%

Cubs Cover

71.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

WSH By 1-2 runs

12.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.1%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.45
WASHINGTON
4.73
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim Nationals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.744 ▲
OPS
.374
210 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +14.2% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Washington: 1.1
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +90.1% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +69.2% more
Washington: 5.4 vs Chicago: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.5 6
CHC Score 4.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.4 / 7.4 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.4 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 13.3 15.0 / 16.0
Walks 1.7 / 5.4 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
WSH
CHC
WSH
ML
58% 93-68
57% 92-69
51% 82-79
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-68
47% 75-85-1
57% 91-70
TTL
52% 81-74-6
50% 77-78-6
46% 72-83-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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