HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
78-65 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
73-70 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Smith
#11 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Ezequiel Duran
#20 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Smith | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ezequiel Duran | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
54%
RANGERS
46%
ASTROS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
13.3%
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.27
HOUSTON
Texas
4.35
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.713
4
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+38.3% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Texas: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.8
OPS (Season)
+13.1%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.3
2
TEX Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 11.0
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 10.8
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 18.1
9.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.5
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
HOU
TEX
HOU
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
92-70
56%
91-72
61%
98-63
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-84-9
55%
81-66-14
45%
69-86-9
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