BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
78-65 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
72-71 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 2.48 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 4.33 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.48 Ldr
ERA
4.33
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
54%
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
RED SOX
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
BOS By 1-2 runs
13.2%
BOS By 3-4 runs
7.5%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.76
BOSTON
Arizona
5.87
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ARI @ BOS
7 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ARI @ BOS
4 - 9
Aug 17, 2026
ARI @ BOS
1 - 11
Sep 7, 2025
BOS @ ARI
7 - 4
Sep 6, 2025
BOS @ ARI
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8200.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+356.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
Arizona: 1.1
vs
Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+31.1%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.8
7
ARI Score
5.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 8.9
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.7
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 12.7
7.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
BOS
ARI
BOS
ML
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-67
56%
89-71
48%
79-84
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
72-83-5
49%
73-77-9
47%
74-83-6
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