Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Yankees TOR @ NYY

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

82-59  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 1:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

78-63  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brendon Little None-None 3.13 -- 1.1 3
David Bednar None-None 2.52 -- 1.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.13 ERA Ldr 2.52
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
53%
📊
YANKEES
47%
BLUE JAYS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

68.2%

Yankees Cover

31.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

18.2%

NYY By 1-2 runs

13.9%

NYY By 3-4 runs

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7.85
TORONTO
5.96
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
5
TORONTO
7
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 13.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.692
OPS
▲ 1.041
152 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs New York: 2.0
Hits (L5) +38.1% more
Toronto: 12.2 vs New York: 7.5
Total Bases (L5) +34.4% more
Toronto: 21.8 vs New York: 14.3
Home Runs (L5) +19.3% more
Toronto: 2.4 vs New York: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 7.9 1
NYY Score 6.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 12.2 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 2.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.0 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 21.8 6.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.2 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47% 76-85
46% 74-87
52% 85-77
50% 80-80
ATS
59% 95-66
56% 90-71
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
51% 80-76-5
53% 82-72-7
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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