PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
82-59 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
65-76 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.89 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.89 Ldr
ERA
3.27
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
62%
MARLINS
38%
PHILLIES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.15
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
3.79
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
OPS
▲
.727
3
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.2% more
Philadelphia: 1.9
vs
Miami: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+35.3% more
Philadelphia: 18.4
vs
Miami: 11.9
Hits (L5)
+28.0% more
Philadelphia: 10.9
vs
Miami: 7.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.2
4
MIA Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 10.9
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 7.2
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 18.4
9.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.6
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
78-84
59%
97-67
55%
88-72
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
91-71
65%
107-57
54%
86-74
51%
83-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
57%
88-67-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-76-9
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