MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
87-55 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
64-78 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.16 | -- | 6.1 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.30 Ldr
ERA
4.16
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
66%
PIRATES
34%
BREWERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.0%
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.5%
PIT By 3-4 runs
6.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
6.47
MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh
4.1
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.743
▲
OPS
.734
154
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+20.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+16.7% more
Milwaukee: 8.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.4
Total Bases (L5)
+15.1% more
Milwaukee: 12.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.5
4
PIT Score
4.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.9
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.1
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 12.8
7.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.7
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIL
PIT
MIL
ML
52%
82-77
62%
101-61
52%
85-78
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
94-68
50%
81-82
48%
78-84
TTL
47%
72-81-6
40%
62-92-8
50%
79-78-6
50%
77-77-8
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