Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Reds NYM @ CIN

NEW YORK

METSNYM

76-65  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

70-71  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.38
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
54%
📊
REDS
46%
METS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cincinnati)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

44.5%

Reds Cover

55.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NYM By 1-2 runs

17.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

11.9%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.34
NEW YORK
5.89
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 NYM @ CIN 9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 NYM @ CIN 3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 NYM @ CIN 0 - 12
May 27, 2026 CIN @ NYM 2 - 4
May 26, 2026 CIN @ NYM 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.705 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs New York: 204.0
Home Runs (L5) +58.3% more
New York: 1.4 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +9.7% more
New York: 16.9 vs Cincinnati: 15.3
Runs per Game (Season) +4.6% more
New York: 4.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.3 3
CIN Score 5.9 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.3 / 10.4 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.4 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 9.7 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 16.9 15.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.8 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYM
CIN
NYM
ML
55% 88-71
50% 79-80
49% 79-81
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-66
50% 80-80
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
55% 80-66-13
54% 83-72-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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