MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
62-79 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
72-69 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Stephen Kolek
#32 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | None-None | 3.32 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Stephen Kolek | None-None | 3.88 | -- | 7.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.32 Ldr
ERA
3.88
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
43%
ROYALS
57%
TWINS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
14.8%
KC By 1-2 runs
17.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.34
MINNESOTA
Kansas City
3.91
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.718
187
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+97.7% more
Minnesota: 1.3
vs
Kansas City: 0.0
Hits (L5)
+38.2% more
Minnesota: 8.9
vs
Kansas City: 5.5
Total Bases (L5)
+17.1% more
Minnesota: 13.3
vs
Kansas City: 11.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9.1% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.3
2
KC Score
3.9
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.5 / 8.9
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.6
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 13.3
21.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.3
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55%
89-72
52%
84-78
56%
90-70
50%
80-81
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
TTL
58%
90-64-7
51%
78-75-9
54%
83-70-7
53%
80-72-9
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