SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
72-69 | Road
2
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
70-72 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Gilbert
#0 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Gilbert | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 1.64 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.64
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
52%
CARDINALS
48%
GIANTS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
15.3%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.2%
STL By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5.52
SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis
4.91
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
SF @ STL
6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
SF @ STL
10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
SF @ STL
1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026
STL @ SF
6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
STL @ SF
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.706
▲
OPS
.691
178
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+57.9% more
San Francisco: 2.5
vs
St. Louis: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+56.7% more
San Francisco: 23.9
vs
St. Louis: 10.4
Hits (L5)
+56.1% more
San Francisco: 14.0
vs
St. Louis: 6.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.2% more
San Francisco: 9.1
vs
St. Louis: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.5
2
STL Score
4.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.2 / 14.0
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.1
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 23.9
8.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SF
STL
SF
ML
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
53%
85-75
ATS
56%
89-70
62%
100-60
53%
85-76
52%
83-77
TTL
46%
68-81-10
55%
82-68-10
50%
76-75-10
46%
68-81-11
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