BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
78-64 | Road
1
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
71-71 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 3.03 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.18 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.03 Ldr
ERA
5.18
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
55%
DIAMONDBACKS
45%
RED SOX
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
BOS By 1-2 runs
14.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
8.2%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.04
BOSTON
Arizona
5.89
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
B
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ARI @ BOS
7 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ARI @ BOS
4 - 9
Aug 17, 2026
ARI @ BOS
1 - 11
Sep 7, 2025
BOS @ ARI
7 - 4
Sep 6, 2025
BOS @ ARI
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8200.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+356.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+104.0% more
Arizona: 1.7
vs
Boston: 0.6
OPS (Season)
+31.1%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
1
ARI Score
5.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 9.9
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 6.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 15.0
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.0 / 4.2
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
BOS
ARI
BOS
ML
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-67
56%
89-71
48%
79-84
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
72-83-5
49%
73-77-9
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…