Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Reds NYM @ CIN

NEW YORK

METSNYM

75-65  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

70-70  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 3.28 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.28
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
54%
📊
REDS
46%
METS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cincinnati)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

47.5%

Reds Cover

52.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

12.8%

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.8%

CIN By 3-4 runs

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.94
NEW YORK
6.19
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 NYM @ CIN 9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 NYM @ CIN 3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 NYM @ CIN 0 - 12
May 27, 2026 CIN @ NYM 2 - 4
May 26, 2026 CIN @ NYM 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.705 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +13.5% more
Cincinnati: 10.3 vs New York: 9.0
Home Runs (Season) +4.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs New York: 204.0
Home Runs (L5) +45.8% more
New York: 1.7 vs Cincinnati: 0.9
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
New York: 0.6 vs Cincinnati: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.9 5
CIN Score 6.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.9 / 10.6 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 9.0 8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 17.8 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.7 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYM
CIN
NYM
ML
55% 88-71
50% 79-80
49% 79-81
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-66
50% 80-80
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
55% 80-66-13
54% 83-72-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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