Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Yankees TOR @ NYY

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

81-59  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

78-62  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ryan Yarbrough
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Yarbrough

#33 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Braydon Fisher None-None 2.95 -- 1.0 --
Ryan Yarbrough None-None 3.71 -- 5.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.95 Ldr ERA 3.71
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
52%
📊
YANKEES
48%
BLUE JAYS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

54.6%

Yankees Cover

45.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.1%

TOR By 3-4 runs

14.9%

NYY By 1-2 runs

17.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
7.19
TORONTO
6.73
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 13.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.692
OPS
▲ 1.041
152 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs New York: 2.0
Hits (L5) +27.0% more
Toronto: 12.7 vs New York: 9.3
Total Bases (L5) +25.9% more
Toronto: 24.2 vs New York: 18.0
Home Runs (L5) +22.2% more
Toronto: 3.1 vs New York: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 7.2 7
NYY Score 6.7 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 12.7 4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 3.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 9.5 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 24.2 7.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.3 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47% 76-85
46% 74-87
52% 85-77
50% 80-80
ATS
59% 95-66
56% 90-71
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
51% 80-76-5
53% 82-72-7
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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