PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
81-59 | Road
9
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
65-75 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Mayza
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Mayza | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.38 Ldr
ERA
2.70
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
61%
MARLINS
39%
PHILLIES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.9%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.2%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.36
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
4.24
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
OPS
▲
.727
3
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+24.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+21.6% more
Philadelphia: 3.3
vs
Miami: 2.6
Total Bases (L5)
+20.1% more
Philadelphia: 13.6
vs
Miami: 10.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.4
9
MIA Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 8.3
8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 7.8
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 13.6
14.0 / 28.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.3
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
78-84
59%
97-67
55%
88-72
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
91-71
65%
107-57
54%
86-74
51%
83-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
57%
88-67-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…
A's Seth Johnson Undergoes Knee Surgery, Eyes Spring Training Re…