SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
73-67 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
63-77 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.91 | -- | -- | -- |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.68 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.91 Ldr
ERA
3.68
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
57%
BRAVES
43%
MARINERS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.0%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.68
SEATTLE
Atlanta
4.91
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 6, 2026
ATL @ SEA
1 - 3
May 5, 2026
ATL @ SEA
3 - 2
May 4, 2026
ATL @ SEA
4 - 5
Sep 7, 2025
SEA @ ATL
18 - 2
Sep 6, 2025
SEA @ ATL
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
.233
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.693
OPS
▲
.757
182
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+23.7% more
Atlanta: 2.7
vs
Seattle: 2.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+22.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Hits (L5)
+18.0% more
Atlanta: 7.7
vs
Seattle: 6.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.0% more
Atlanta: 8.7
vs
Seattle: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.7
1
ATL Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 6.5
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.8
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 11.8
16.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.2
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SEA
ATL
SEA
ML
46%
77-90
50%
81-81
54%
90-78
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
96-71
60%
98-64
52%
87-81
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
83-73-11
56%
85-67-10
49%
76-80-11
53%
81-71-10
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