CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
69-70 | Road
7
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
71-69 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.36 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 5.46 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.36 Ldr
ERA
5.46
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
49%
RAYS
51%
GUARDIANS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.7%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.66
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
5.33
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
C
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.728
162
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+50.5% more
Tampa Bay: 10.6
vs
Cleveland: 7.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.8% more
Tampa Bay: 10.5
vs
Cleveland: 8.3
Walks (L5)
+25.2% more
Tampa Bay: 2.7
vs
Cleveland: 2.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.7
7
TB Score
5.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 7.0
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 8.3
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 13.6
12.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
49%
80-82
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-68
55%
90-73
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
73-81-9
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-10
43%
69-90-2
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