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SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

71-69  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

70-71  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Drew Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Gilbert

#0 | Center Field
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Gilbert None-None -- -- -- --
Gordon Graceffo None-None 5.45 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.45
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
51%
📊
CARDINALS
49%
GIANTS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (St. Louis)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

37.4%

Cardinals Cover

62.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

9.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.43
SAN FRANCISCO
5.71
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 SF @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 SF @ STL 10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 SF @ STL 1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026 STL @ SF 6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 STL @ SF 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.706 ▲
OPS
.691
178 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +11.4% more
St. Louis: 2.8 vs San Francisco: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season) +7.5% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs San Francisco: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.7%
St. Louis: 31.3% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Home Runs (L5) +60.9% more
San Francisco: 2.8 vs St. Louis: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.4 8
STL Score 5.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 12.0 5.0 / 18.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 10.1 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 21.4 8.0 / 29.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SF
STL
SF
ML
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
53% 85-75
ATS
56% 89-70
62% 100-60
53% 85-76
52% 83-77
TTL
46% 68-81-10
55% 82-68-10
50% 76-75-10
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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