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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

64-77  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

66-74  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.74 -- 1.0 1
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.74 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
48%
📊
ANGELS
52%
ATHLETICS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

54.7%

Angels Cover

45.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.1%

ATH By 3-4 runs

14.9%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.5%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.87
ATHLETICS
4.4
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 LAA @ ATH 3 - 7
Sep 22, 2026 LAA @ ATH 7 - 9
Jun 28, 2026 ATH @ LAA 1 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 ATH @ LAA 2 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATH @ LAA 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.719 ▲
OPS
.679
194 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.5% more
Athletics: 9.1 vs Los Angeles: 6.2
Total Bases (L5) +27.2% more
Athletics: 15.3 vs Los Angeles: 11.1
Home Runs (Season) +20.6% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5) +18.1% more
Athletics: 7.1 vs Los Angeles: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 4.9 10
LAA Score 4.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 9.1 3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 7.1 13.0 / 16.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 15.3 3.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.8 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH Advantage
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
ATH
LAA
ATH
ML
59% 96-66
59% 95-67
55% 89-73
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 97-65
52% 84-78
51% 82-80
50% 81-80
TTL
53% 83-74-5
54% 84-73-5
52% 82-75-5
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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